The 'Troop Surge' Fallacy

[Steve Gardner]

It seems that the 'radical cleric', Muqtada al-Sadr, has done the US and its coalition of the willing a big favour - according to Rasmussen Reports, '47% of Americans now say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror'.

A comparison of Rasmussen's historical data with that of the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count (ICCC) of Iraqi security forces and civilian deaths shows us why al-Sadr might have played a bigger part in this rising sense of optimism than the White House would care to admit.

Month - Rasmussen - ICCC

Nov 47% - 544
Oct 43% - 679
Sep 39% - 848
Aug 39% - 1674
Jul 36% - 1690
Jun 36% - 1345
May 36% - 1980
Apr 37% - 1821
Mar 38% - 2977
Feb 36% - 3014
Jan 37% - 1802

So how, you might ask, does al-Sadr figure in all of this? Well, you'll recall that in January, Bush announced his new strategy for Iraq - 'The New Way Forward'.

...America will change our strategy to help the Iraqis carry out their campaign to put down sectarian violence and bring security to the people of Baghdad. This will require increasing American force levels. So I've committed more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq. The vast majority of them -- five brigades -- will be deployed to Baghdad. These troops will work alongside Iraqi units and be embedded in their formations. Our troops will have a well-defined mission: to help Iraqis clear and secure neighborhoods, to help them protect the local population, and to help ensure that the Iraqi forces left behind are capable of providing the security that Baghdad needs.

The administration is now attributing the recent sharp and sustained drop in all forms of violence, which has resulted in the reduction of dead and wounded troops and civilians, to this 'troop surge'.

As you can see from the data above, the troop surge led to an initial rise in security forces and civilian deaths, but by September the policy appeared to be paying dividends. It is no doubt in part because of this that the US population is feeling 'happier' with the way things are going in Iraq.

But just about everybody seems to have fortgotten the announcement on August 29th that al-Sadr had 'ordered his militia to suspend offensive operations for six months'. The following month, the ICCC reported a reduction in Iraqi security forces and civilian deaths of almost exactly 50%. Military deaths have also now dropped to their lowest level in since September 2003 and the number of US wounded dropped by 34% between August and September.

[Steve Gardner]

As a follow-up to the OP, AFP today gives us an a clue about the timing of this turnaround in Iraq (emphasis added).

Source: AFP

US warns Iraq to speed up political progress

BAGHDAD (AFP) — US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte warned on Sunday that Iraq must use space created by improved security to speed up political reconciliation or risk a new eruption of sectarian violence.

"The security surge has delivered significant results," Negroponte told a news conference in Baghdad at the end of a six-day tour of Iraq.

"Now progress on political reconciliation, including key national legislation as well as economic advances, is needed to consolidate the gains," he said.

It was "reasonable" he added, to expect that key legislation aimed at fostering national reconciliation currently stalled before a parliament bitterly divided along sectarian lines would be passed within six months.

"If progress is not made on these fronts, we risk falling back to the more violent patterns of the past," he said.

Negroponte said that his visit to nine locations in eight provinces had convinced him that Iraqis "at both the local and provincial level are standing up to take control of their territory from violent extremists."

The formation of anti-Al-Qaeda fronts in many Sunni areas of Iraq is touted by the US military as one of the major factors in reducing violence, coinciding with the deployment of an extra 28,500 US troops to Baghdad and surrounding areas.

Government officials on Saturday released figures showing that the number of Iraqis killed in November fell to 606, the lowest monthly toll since brutal sectarian violence exploded across the country in February last year.

The toll was lower than the 637 reported killed that month, when a revered Shiite shrine in the central city of Samarra was bombed, triggering communal conflict that continues to this day.

Mirroring the fall in civilian deaths, combat losses among US troops in Iraq dropped to a 20-month low of 37 in November, according to an AFP tally based on Pentagon figures.

"With the security gains of recent months -- and they have been significant and definitely very palpable -- this is now an opportunity to follow up on this situation," said Negroponte, deputy to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

"It's one thing to have brought the violence under some semblance of control but it's another matter now to follow up with the necessary reconstruction and stabilisation projects that will safeguard regions and protect them from this type of violence."

He stressed that it was essential that the Iraqi parliament pass outstanding legislation, including a new oil and gas law to reassure Sunnis that receipts will be shared equally between all 18 provinces and a de-Baathification law to allow some members of Saddam Hussein's regime back into government posts.

"It would be extremely helpful if this could be passed and go forward as an indication that the people and government and the legislature of Iraq are prepared to build on the security gains that have been achieved," said the US envoy.

Negroponte said he believed the bills, identified by Washington as benchmarks to measure political reconciliation in Iraq, would be passed "in the forseeable future."

"We expect and hope that in six months from now it is reasonable to expect these types of legislation could have been passed.

"I think that would be extremely helpful in terms of consolidating the security gains that have been made so far."

I wonder who the beneficiaries of this 'new oil and gas law' are.