Post by Steve Gardner on Feb 13, 2008 11:26:33 GMT
...as another of her aides quits
When the primary season got under way, I had two fears: that Clinton would receive the Democratic nomination and that Giuliani would receive the Republican nomination.
Fortunately, Giuliani was an early casualty. At that point I felt sure we were heading inexorably toward a Clinton administration. Could it be that she won't even get the Democratic nomination?
Obama has had a tremendous past few days, taking three more primaries last night. And, although he naturally commands a majority of the black vote, he now appears to be broadening his appeal and is splitting the white vote.
I'm not a massive fan of Obama but, with my preferred candidates out of contention, I'd chose him over Clinton every day.
I still can't bring myself to believe that the black son of a Muslim father will be allowed to become US President. Note the use of 'allowed' instead of 'elected'. I still remember the dimpled chads and disenfranchisement that accompanied the manipulated 2000 election that brought Bush to power.
Time will tell.
Source: The Times
When the primary season got under way, I had two fears: that Clinton would receive the Democratic nomination and that Giuliani would receive the Republican nomination.
Fortunately, Giuliani was an early casualty. At that point I felt sure we were heading inexorably toward a Clinton administration. Could it be that she won't even get the Democratic nomination?
Obama has had a tremendous past few days, taking three more primaries last night. And, although he naturally commands a majority of the black vote, he now appears to be broadening his appeal and is splitting the white vote.
I'm not a massive fan of Obama but, with my preferred candidates out of contention, I'd chose him over Clinton every day.
I still can't bring myself to believe that the black son of a Muslim father will be allowed to become US President. Note the use of 'allowed' instead of 'elected'. I still remember the dimpled chads and disenfranchisement that accompanied the manipulated 2000 election that brought Bush to power.
Time will tell.
Source: The Times
Tim Reid in Washington
Barack Obama has overtaken Hillary Clinton in the race for Democratic presidential delegates after routing her in last night's three primary contests, victories that saw him dramatically cut into her core support for the first time.
As another of Mrs Clinton's top advisers quit her campaign, Mr Obama crushed her in Virginia, Maryland and Washington DC, drawing unprecedented backing across race, gender and economic lines with a momentum that advisers to Mrs Clinton concede is gravely endangering her campaign.
As the scale of his victories emerged, Mrs Clinton's camp announced that her deputy campaign manager Mike Henry had resigned, two days after the removal of her campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, adding to the sense of mounting stress and pressure in the face of Mr Obama's recent string of victories.
John McCain, the Republican frontrunner, won all three primaries over Mike Huckabee, bringing him closer to what appears to be his inevitable nomination. But he only narrowly won Virginia, in the face of stiff opposition from conservatives and evangelicals, a clear sign that he has an ongoing problem with the base of his party, which could damage him in the general election.
Mr Obama was heavily favoured to win yesterday's "Potomac primaries", where black voters accounted for a big proportion of turnout. But the scale of his victories, which saw him cut heavily for the first time into Mrs Clinton's core support, was overwhelming. He won Virginia 64 per cent to 35; Maryland 60 per cent to 37; and Washington DC 75 per cent to 24.
Of more concern to Mrs Clinton, who is now banking all on victories in Texas and Ohio on March 4 to save her campaign, was the manner of her rival's wins last night.
Mr Obama split the white vote with Mrs Clinton in Virginia and Maryland, a group where the former New York senator has held a clear advantage. He prevailed among white men, and held her advantage among white women to just nine points, a bloc that has usually backed her by margins of 20 per cent.
With Mrs Clinton now focused on Texas, where she held a rally last night in a state one third Hispanic - a minority that has favoured her heavily - Mr Obama beat her among Latinos in Maryland 53 to 47 per cent.
In further signs that his momentum is cutting into her base, he prevailed among voters over 65, lower-income voters, and rural voters, although a significant number of those were black.
In Maryland, he won among all religions, all age groups, and all education levels. He won an even bigger margin among African Americans than in previous contests, with more than 90 per cent turning out for him. He swamped her among young voters four to one, and among independents by three-to-one. He won among blue-collar voters and the affluent.
"Tonight we're on our way," he told cheering supporters in Madison, Wisconsin, celebrating his eight straight victories over Mrs Clinton since the Super Tuesday contests.
"Today, the change we seek swept through the Chesapeake and over the Potomac. We won the state of Maryland. We won the Commonwealth of Virginia. And though we won in Washington DC, this movement won't stop until there's change in Washington.
"We are bringing together Democrats and independents and Republicans; blacks and whites; Latinos and Asians; small states and big states; Red States and Blue States into a United States of America," Mr Obama declared.
"This is the new American majority."
Mr Obama's wins last night follow five weekend victories, and with both camps expecting him to prevail next Tuesday in Wisconsin and Hawaii - where he grew up - Mrs Clinton will likely head into the critical March 4 contests having suffered 10 straight defeats. Mr Obama enjoys an advantage in Wisconsin because, among other reasons, it neighbours his home state of Illinois.
Ignoring her losses and her Democratic rival, Mrs Clinton addressed a rally in El Paso, Texas, having flown there before last night's results were declared. "I need you to stand up for me because if we stand up together, if we work together, if we fight together, we will take back America and we will make history together," she said. Reprising one of her campaign slogans, she said: "I'm tested, I'm ready. Now let's make it happen."
Mrs Clinton says she is confident of victory in Ohio and Texas, and argues that she has won significantly more big primary states than Mr Obama — such as New Jersey, California and Arizona — where the Democratic electorate is more representative of the nation. Twin victories on March 4 would yet again reshape an extraordinary Democratic race that could well grind on to the nominating convention in August.
Mrs Clinton remains a formidable candidate, and has already blunted Mr Obama's momentum twice before: with her stunning comeback victory in New Hampshire after his victory in Iowa, and on Super Tuesday, when she won several big, key states despite polls indicating otherwise.
Yet Mr Obama's post-Super Tuesday wins are taking their toll. On Monday Mrs Clinton was forced to hold a conference call with worried supporters to try to calm their nerves, the day after the removal of Ms Solis Doyle raised concerns that panic was setting in.
Mr Obama's victories are providing him with daily momentum and money. He raised $32 million (£16 million) in January — a record — and aides say that he could raise at least that much this month. A new poll puts him ahead in Wisconsin by 50 to 39 per cent. Both candidates began airing advertisements in Wisconsin, Texas and Ohio, and scheduled a debate on February 21 in Austin, Texas.
Mrs Clinton's aides are now privately conceding that failure to win in Ohio and Texas could end her campaign, as both states should favour her. Ohio has a heavily white, blue-collar, unionised Democratic electorate - a voting bloc that has largely backed her in previous contests - while Texas's Hispanic population is considered a demographic firewall for her.
Mr Obama heads into the next contests having won 22 states, to Mrs Clinton’s 12, allowing him to tell huge crowds that he has won in the East, West, North and South of America — from Maine, to Washington State, Georgia to Colorado, and many states in the heartland, including Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri.
Mrs Clinton’s advisers predicted four of the five post-Super-Tuesday losses in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington State and the Virgin Islands — but had hoped to win Maine, which Mr Obama won in a landslide, 59 per cent to 40. The former First Lady’s strategists also failed to anticipate the size of her rival’s victories.
Mrs Clinton argues that many of his victories have come in caucus states, which she says are dominated by a small core of activists, in contrast to her wins in big primary contests. She and her surrogates are also arguing that Mr Obama lacks the toughness to take on the Republican attack machine, and that his record has yet to be properly scrutinised.
“There is very little new information about me,” she said yesterday. “It’s processed, in the mental bank of America. I think that’s a huge advantage for me.” Mr Obama responded, telling a crowd of about 15,000 at the University of Maryland that: “I may be skinny, but I’m tough, too.”
Referring to Mrs Clinton's post-Super Tuesday focus on Ohio and Texas, David Axelrod, Mr Obama's chief strategist, said: "Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February."
Joe Trippi, who managed the failed campaign of John Edwards, said that Mrs Clinton would be in real trouble if she loses Texas.
Yesterday Mr Obama's scheduled talks with Mr Edwards were postponed for undisclosed reasons. The Illinois senator is seeking a coveted endorsement from a former rival who holds great sway over the white lower-income male voters - currently evenly divided between the two Democrats - that could yet determine the outcome of the race.
On Thursday, Mrs Clinton travelled to North Carolina for her own "private conversation" with Mr Edwards. Her aides said yesterday that they hoped he would at least remain neutral. There are rumours that both candidates are discussing senior posts in their putative administrations, including that of Attorney General, which would give Mr Edwards a swift return to the public eye.
