Obama and Clinton deadlocked

[Steve Gardner]

Can Obama possibly win this?

Source: Reuters

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

SAN ANTONIO (Reuters) - Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in Texas and Ohio heading into potentially decisive presidential showdowns, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle poll released on Saturday.

Clinton is fighting to save her White House candidacy in the two primaries on Tuesday. Obama, an Illinois senator, has beaten her in 11 consecutive contests to take control of the race for the Democratic nomination in November's presidential election.

In Texas, Obama leads 45 percent to 43 percent, down from a 6-point advantage on Friday and well within the poll's margin of error of 4 percentage points.

In Ohio, they are dead even at 45 percent. Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady, had led by 2 points on Friday in the rolling poll conducted by Zogby International.

Republican front-runner John McCain had huge leads in both states over his last major rival, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, as he moves closer to clinching the Republican nomination.

McCain, an Arizona senator, can come close to winning the 1,191 delegates needed to clinch the nomination with big wins on Tuesday. The delegates select the nominee at September's Republican Party convention.

In the Democratic race, Clinton made overnight gains in Texas in some of her strongest voting blocs, including older and women voters. She pulled almost even with Obama among voters who made their decision in the last few days.

"Hillary Clinton may be making a connection with Democratic voters in Texas, especially among those in key demographic groups that have supported her all year," pollster John Zogby said.

Clinton also kept her big lead among Hispanic voters in Texas, who could account for one-third or more of the total turnout. She had huge advantages in the heavily Hispanic southern and western parts of the state.

Other opinion polls show tightening Democratic races in both states, where Clinton enjoyed big leads just a few weeks ago.

STILL UNDECIDED

In Ohio, 6 percent of Democrats say they are still uncertain of their choice. In Texas, 7 percent of Democrats are not sure, leaving plenty of room for late swings.

Clinton, who has stressed her prescriptions for the ailing economy in blue-collar Ohio, showed strength in sparsely populated and less affluent southern Ohio, where she spent two days this week campaigning.

But she trailed Obama in heavily Democratic northeast Ohio and the growing central Ohio region.

Among Republicans, McCain leads Huckabee 58 percent to 23 percent in Ohio and 54 percent to 31 percent in Texas. The other remaining Republican candidate, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, had 7 percent in Texas and 8 percent in Ohio.

The rolling poll was conducted Wednesday through Friday, with most of the survey coming before Clinton launched a fresh attack on Friday on Obama's ability and experience handling a national security crisis.

She released a new television ad to be aired in Texas showing children sleeping peacefully in bed.

"It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. But there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call," the ad's narrator says

Obama hit back with an ad of his own, which also showed sleeping children and spoke of a White House phone ringing.

"When that call gets answered, shouldn't the president be the one -- the only one -- who had judgment and courage to oppose the Iraq war from the start?" the narrator says.

The poll of 701 likely Democratic voters in Ohio and 708 in Texas had a margin of error of about 4 percentage points. The poll of 600 likely Republican voters in Ohio and 596 voters in Texas had a margin of error in both states of 4 percent.

In a rolling poll, the most recent day's results are added and the oldest day's results are dropped to track changing momentum. The poll will continue until Tuesday.

[Steve Gardner]

Source: Reuters

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - After crucial victories over Barack Obama in Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton was optimistic on Wednesday and said she was the best Democrat to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the November U.S. presidential election.

The victories for Clinton, a New York senator, snapped Obama's presidential winning streak at 12 and defied widespread predictions of defeats in Ohio and Texas that would force her out of the White House race.

The hard-fought Democratic presidential duel now moves to contests in Wyoming and Mississippi and the next major showdown in Pennsylvania on April 22, with Clinton still trailing Obama in pledged delegates who will choose the nominee at the August party convention.

"I think that voters are finally focused on who they think would be the best commander-in-chief and who would be the best president to turn the economy around," Clinton, 60, said in an interview on Wednesday on NBC's "Today Show".

McCain's four big victories in Vermont, Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island drove his last major rival, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, out of the race and gave McCain more than the 1,191 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.

President George W. Bush will endorse the Arizona senator at the White House on Wednesday, capping McCain's comeback from the political scrap heap last year when his campaign was down in the polls and counted out.

"I am very pleased to note that tonight, my friends, we have won enough delegates to claim with confidence, humility and a sense of great responsibility that I will be the Republican nominee for president of the United States," McCain, 71, told supporters in Dallas.

"The contest begins tonight," the former Navy fighter pilot and prisoner of war in Vietnam said, looking ahead to a match-up with either Obama or Clinton in November.

Clinton's wins marked the third time this year she has dodged a potential knockout blow from Obama. She won in New Hampshire after a loss in Iowa, and split the Super Tuesday contests after a blowout defeat in South Carolina.

Exit polls showed she won big among voters who decided in the last few days, when she questioned Obama's readiness to be commander in chief in a dramatic television ad and cast doubt on the sincerity of his pledges to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which is blamed in Ohio for manufacturing job losses.

Asked if she thought voters were having second thoughts about Obama, Clinton said on NBC "I think they are starting to ask some hard questions and I think voters want this race to go on because they are now really concerned about who can best go against Sen. McCain."

BROAD BASE OF SUPPORT

Clinton's win was built with support from a broad constituency of men, women, the elderly, Hispanics, working-class Democrats and rural voters, exit polls showed.

Under Democratic rules allowing the losers in each state to win a proportional number of delegates, Clinton must win many of the remaining contests by big margins to have a shot at significantly closing the gap with Obama in the delegate race.

"The bottom line is, that we are in a very strong position," Obama said on the "Today Show". "Sen. Clinton barely dented the delegate count yesterday...This process is going to ultimately be about who has the most delegates."

An MSNBC count gave Obama 1,307 delegates to Clinton's 1,175, both still short of the 2,025 needed to win the nomination. The final delegate apportionment from Tuesday's contests was still being calculated.

Clinton also captured Rhode Island and Obama scored an easy win in Vermont. Turnout was heavy in all four states, and the campaigns of Obama, 46, an Illinois senator, and Clinton traded accusations of voting problems in both Ohio and Texas.

In his victory speech, McCain took aim at both of his likely Democratic opponents and criticized their pledges to revisit U.S. trade treaties, punish companies that send jobs overseas and withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq.

"The next president must explain how he or she intends to bring that war to the swiftest possible conclusion without exacerbating a sectarian conflict that could quickly descend into genocide, destabilizing the entire Middle East," McCain said.

McCain has had trouble winning over conservatives unhappy with his views on immigration, his past opposition to Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 and his criticism of some religious conservative leaders as "agents of intolerance" during his failed 2000 presidential campaign.