Obama, Clinton face new tests in White House duel

[Steve Gardner]

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton faced a crucial day in their grueling White House fight on Tuesday, as millions of voters in Indiana and North Carolina cast ballots in the latest Democratic showdowns.

The two states, with a combined 187 delegates to the August nominating convention at stake, are the biggest prizes remaining in the tight race to see who will be the party's candidate in the November presidential election. After Tuesday, only six of the state-by-state contests will be left.

Obama, who many analysts believed could split the day by winning North Carolina and losing Indiana, declared to reporters as he ate an omelet in Greenwood, Indiana: "I feel good."

"I think it's going to be close. I don't think anybody really knows exactly what's going to happen. ... I'm seeing a lot of enthusiasm among the voters. People are just really engaged and excited about this campaign and this process," he said.

Twin losses could be disastrous for Clinton, who would be the first female U.S. president.

The New York senator and former first lady has cut Obama's advantage in North Carolina to single digits in most polls over the past few weeks. The two run closer in Indiana, where Clinton has a slight edge.

"Obviously we hope to do as well as we can, but, you know, we started out pretty far behind," she told reporters on her campaign plane late on Monday. "I never feel confident; I just try to do the best I can."

Her campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, predicted on MSNBC -- when pressed -- that Clinton would win Indiana. "And I think we're closing very fast in North Carolina," he said.

Polls in both states opened by 7 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT) and were scheduled to close in Indiana at 7 p.m. EDT (2300 GMT) and in North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. EDT (2330 GMT), with results expected soon afterward.

OBAMA LEADS, HAD ROUGH PATCH

Obama, an Illinois senator, has an almost unassailable lead in pledged delegates who will help select the Democratic nominee to face Republican John McCain in November.

If Obama wins in both Indiana and North Carolina on Tuesday, it would end Clinton's slender hopes of overtaking him in either delegates or popular votes won in the nomination battle and spark renewed calls for her to step aside.

Clinton victories in both states could fuel doubts about Obama's electability and persuade some superdelegates -- party insiders free to back any candidate at the nominating convention -- to move toward her.

Neither can win enough delegates to clinch the race before voting ends on June 3, leaving the decision to the nearly 800 superdelegates.

A split decision would leave the race largely unchanged before the last six contests, with 217 delegates at stake.

Obama has struggled through a rough campaign stretch after last month's loss to Clinton in Pennsylvania, dogged by a furor over his comments on "bitter" small-town residents and a controversy over his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, has been backed by nine out of 10 black voters in other states, and is expected to benefit from a strong turnout in North Carolina, where African-Americans could make up more than one-third of those casting ballots in the Democratic primary.

The two Democrats, courting the working- and middle-classes suffering from an ailing economy and high gas prices, spent much of the past few days focusing on Clinton's proposal to lift the federal gasoline tax for the summer.

Obama and many economists called the plan a political gimmick that would save little money for most families, but Clinton launched an advertisement in both states questioning her rival's stance.

"What has happened to Barack Obama?" an announcer asks. "He is attacking Hillary's plan to give you a break on gas prices because he doesn't have one."

Clinton says a suspension of the tax during June, July and August, when many Americans take vacations, would help people deal with record gas prices in a faltering economy. Congressional leaders say there is little chance Congress will take up any gas tax proposal this year.

"Do I think we can get it done, past a veto by President George W. Bush as the ultimate blocker?" Clinton said. "It's obviously a very difficult challenge. But that doesn't mean you don't try."

Obama released his own advertisement saying Clinton offered "more of the same old negative politics." He said the gas tax holiday was a dishonest approach to a real problem.

[Steve Gardner]

I must admit, I never thought Obama had a chance against Clinton. Now it looks as though, barring the most egregious lack of democratic principles (the super-delegates can vote for whomsoever they choose, regardless of the popular vote in their home state), he will indeed go head-to-head against McCain for the Presidency.

One part of me says we should prepare for the worst - a McCain Presidency is tantamount to a declaration of war - the other says I've written Obama off too easily before...

Source and full article: BBC

Barack Obama has scored a clear win in the Democratic presidential primary in North Carolina, while Hillary Clinton has narrowly won the Indiana primary.

Senator Obama won 56% of the vote in North Carolina, while Senator Clinton won 51% of the vote in Indiana.

Both votes were the final major Democratic primaries which help decide the party's White House candidate.

Neither scored a knock-out blow, but analysts say Mr Obama's lead looks increasingly unassailable.

Mr Obama is leading the race in delegates who will chose the presidential nominee by 1,840 to 1,684, according to the Associated Press news agency.

[Steve Gardner]

I had been concerned Clinton was going to sneak in by virtue some undemocratic behaviour on the part of the superdelegates but, thankfully, that doesn't look as though it's going to happen.

So, it's Obama against McCain.

I didn't give Obama much hope against Clinton. I appear to have been wrong. But can he really beat McCain to the White House?

Source and full article: CNN

(CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama has tied Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for superdelegates, according to CNN's latest count.

Obama picked up an endorsement from California superdelegate Crystal Strait, a Young Democrats of America board member and a former California Young Democrats president.

At the beginning of the year, Clinton had led the superdelegate race by more than 100.

Superdelegates are party leaders and officials who vote for the candidate of their choice at the Democratic convention in August.

The focus of the Democratic race has largely turned to the superdelegates because they outnumber the remaining pledged delegates that are up for grabs.

Strait became the 273rd superdelegate in Obama's column, by CNN's count. Clinton had 273 Sunday as well -- technically 273.5 because of some Democrats Abroad superdelegates who are given half a vote each.

"Barack Obama has shown a real commitment to young voters in his campaign, and in response, young people have overwhelmingly voted and caucused for Obama in these primary contests," Strait said in a written statement.

"We know that if a young person votes three times in a row for a party, they become a party voter for life. We know that because of high youth turnout in 2004 and 2006, 2008 is the third and critical election for young voters. And that's why I know I want to pledge my delegate vote to Barack Obama," she said.

Following a flurry of endorsements, Obama campaign chief David Axelrod on Sunday predicted superdelegates would continue to break for Obama.

"We're coming to the end of the process. I think people saw the results on Tuesday as very meaningful," he said on "Fox News Sunday."

[Steve Gardner]

...Michigan, Florida

Well, maybe we've called it too soon for Obama after all.

Although Clinton won West Virginia comfortably (as expected), there is precious little chance of her catching Obama in the race for pledged delegates.

At least, that was the case.

But now, although the matter of the superdelegates hasn't been decided upon, Clinton has another possible avenue to explore. It's one that's been bubbling along gently for a while but which is starting to feature more and more prominently.

Have a read of this article from The Huffington Post, written before the W. Virginia primary.

The NY Time's Adam Nagourney writes about Hillary Clinton's dwindling chances and hopes for a final rescue after Tuesday night's vote tallies in North Carolina and Indiana.

Nagourney points out that the Clinton camp will ratchet up it's already aggressive attempts to have the results for Florida and Michigan - states both candidates didn't campaign in, but Clinton "won" - to be counted. HuffPost's Tom Edsall wrote Sunday about how the Clinton camp planned to carry out the "nuclear option" to get the Michigan and Florida votes counted.

With few states left, she and her aides said they would step up their efforts to count the disputed results in Florida and Michigan, where the states held contests in defiance of Democratic Party rules. If Mrs. Clinton can win the battle to have the delegations from those two states seated at the conventions on the basis of the vote there, she could greatly reduce Mr. Obama's lead in pledged delegates.

But neither candidate actively campaigned in Florida or Michigan, and Mr. Obama did not appear on the Michigan ballot.

Still, in a sign of where the Clinton campaign is going, her aides are asserting that the winner will need 2,209 delegates, not 2,025. That higher number reflects the full inclusion of Florida and Michigan, which held their primaries before the date permitted by the Democratic Party.

[Steve Gardner]

It now does look as though, barring a travesty of justice with the superdelegates, Obama will win the Democratic nomination.

I'm no fan of either but, with the choice limited to just these two, I'm pleased Obama won.

Can he beat McCain?

Source and full article: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Front-runner Barack Obama turned to wrapping up the Democratic presidential nomination after a party committee dealt rival Hillary Clinton a blow by seating the disputed Michigan and Florida convention delegations at half-strength.

At a raucous all-day meeting of the party's rules panel, which was frequently interrupted by Clinton's supporters, the panel agreed on Saturday to seat the delegations from both states but cut their voting power in half.

The decision in the long-running dispute was a victory for Obama, removing one of the last stumbling blocks on his march to the nomination and preventing Clinton from significantly cutting his lead in the hard-fought race.

Only three contests with 86 pledged delegates at stake remain -- Sunday in Puerto Rico and Tuesday in Montana and South Dakota -- and Obama is about 70 delegates short of the 2,118 now needed to clinch the nomination.

That means he will likely still be short of the total on Tuesday, but could reach it quickly with the help of some of the approximately 180 superdelegates -- party officials who can back any candidate -- who remain uncommitted.

[teddy]

I'm surprised, but perhaps shouldn't be considering Hilary has no personality, which is very important in politics (unfortunately). Nevertheless, Obama is part of the elite (his family is related to Bush, Clinton, etc, etc), and I'm in no doubt that he'll be mostly smoke and mirrors when it comes to seeking peace in the Middle East. He's still an interventionist in foreign matters, when push comes to shove.

[Steve Gardner]

He couldn't have made a worse start in my view.

Source and full article: BBC

Barack Obama has pledged unwavering support for Israel in his first foreign policy speech since declaring himself the Democratic nominee for president.

He told the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac), a prominent Jewish lobby, Israel's security was "sacrosanct" and "non-negotiable".

He also said he would do "everything" to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon.