Premiership Bottom Three?

[Steve Gardner]

Here's the bottom half of the Premiership.

Team Tottenham Wigan Middlesbrough Reading Newcastle Sunderland Birmingham Bolton Fulham Derby

Played 29 30 30 30 29 30 29 29 30 30

Points 35 31 31 28 28 27 26 25 23 10

And here are the remaining fixtures for the teams I think are going to be battling out between now and the end of the season to avoid the drop (basically all those in the bottom half except Tottenham).

Fulham Fulham v Everton Newcastle v Fulham Derby v Fulham Fulham v Sunderland Reading v Fulham Fulham v Liverpool Man City v Fulham Fulham v Birmingham Portsmouth v Fulham	Bolton Man Utd v Bolton Bolton v Man City Bolton v Arsenal Aston Villa v Bolton Bolton v West Ham Middlesbrough v Bolton Tottenham v Bolton Bolton v Sunderland Chelsea v Bolton
Birmingham Birmingham v Newcastle Reading v Birmingham Birmingham v Man City Wigan v Birmingham Birmingham v Everton Aston Villa v Birmingham Birmingham v Liverpool Fulham v Birmingham Birmingham v Blackburn	Sunderland - Aston Villa v Sunderland Sunderland v West Ham Fulham v Sunderland Sunderland v Man City Newcastle v Sunderland Sunderland v Middlesbrough Bolton v Sunderland Sunderland v Arsenal
Newcastle Birmingham v Newcastle Newcastle v Fulham Tottenham v Newcastle Newcastle v Reading Portsmouth v Newcastle Newcastle v Sunderland West Ham v Newcastle Newcastle v Chelsea Everton v Newcastle	Reading - Reading v Birmingham Reading v Blackburn Newcastle v Reading Reading v Fulham Arsenal v Reading Wigan v Reading Reading v Tottenham Derby v Reading
Middlesbrough - Middlesbrough v Derby Chelsea v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough v Man Utd Tottenham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough v Bolton Sunderland v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough v Portsmouth Middlesbrough v Man City	Wigan Wigan v Bolton Blackburn v Wigan Portsmouth v Wigan Wigan v Birmingham Chelsea v Wigan Wigan v Tottenham Wigan v Reading Aston Villa v Wigan Wigan v Man Utd

My question is, based on current league position and the relative difficulty of each team's run-in, who will join Derby in the Championship next year?

I think Bolton are doomed - their remaining fixtures are simply horrible. I'm also going to plump for Sunderland, whose visit to Craven Cottage I think will be the key game. If they lose, as I believe they will, then I think Fulham will just pip them to the final safe spot.

What do you reckon?

[Steve Gardner]

Well, I couldn't have been more wrong.

Bolton's win today all but guarantees their Premiership survival because of their far superior goal difference. All of which means its two of three from Fulham, Reading and Birmingham.

Here's the table.

Team Bolton Fulham Reading Birmingham Derby

Played 37 37 37 37 37

Goal Diff -18 -23 -29 -19 -65

Points 36 33 33 32 11

And here are the fixtures involving the bottom five.

Birmingham v Blackburn
Chelsea v Bolton
Derby v Reading
Portsmouth v Fulham

So, who's going down?

[Jack]

Looking at the fixtures I think Birmingham, Fulham & Derby are going down.

I think Reading will beat Derby putting them with 38 games - 36 points.
Birmingham may slip up on blackburn, even if they win they'll have 38 games - 35 points.
With Fulham against Portsmouth there is the chance of Fulham slipping up.

Reading might get their goal difference back up if they give Derby a thrashing. Which personally I hope they do

[Steve Gardner]

I would like to see Reading stay up and I feel sure they're going to beat Derby. My only concern is that, after today's defeat to Middlesbrough, Portsmouth have nothing to play for as far as the league is concerned. And, with the FA Cup just around the corner, I'm sure they'll be fielding a weak side against Fulham.

If Fulham do win, then Reading are effectively down on goal difference. Even Derby won't lose by eight clear goals, which is the minimum Reading would need to win by if Fulham get a 1 goal win over Portsmouth.

[adam]

i was never in any doubt that derby would be goin down and there was a brief time at the beginnin of the season i thought my luck was in and spurs were goin down, but the bleeders caught us up

its still really close down there and i for one i'm glad we're sittin pretty in the middle of the table and i dont feel like i'm gonna have a heart attack relyin on a very dodgily (that aint a word is it?) signed argie to save us from our doom

[Steve Gardner]

Adam - a West Ham fan? Grrr. As a Spurs fan, I'm still smarting from the unfortunate lasagne incident, which robbed us of fourth, much to Jack's (our GM) delight.

In all seriousness though, what's your take on Curbishley? He was revered at Charlton but seems to have come in for a lot of stick recently at West Ham.

Would you like to see him sacked and, if so, any thoughts about a replacement?

[adam]

i am indeed very much a hammer through and through

my thoughts on curbishley are very much tainted by my absolutely love of pardew, the man, the legend. i was none to thrilled when cubishley came in to replace the man that took us to what has been described by everyone as the greatest fa cup final in the competitions history. i wasnt a fan of the man while he was at charlton and i'm still not a fan of him now

in an ideal world i'd have somebody that actually cares about the club manage us, not someone who just says they do to get on the fans side. i'd love tony cottee, i'd have pards back in a heartbeat

[Steve Gardner]

It was a breathtaking final.

I was rooting for WH and was gutted for them when Gerrard's strike went in. But they had chances to wrap it up in ET, IIRC. Didn't Harewood miss a sitter? And someone hit to post too, I think.

[adam]

*cries into ashtray*

the harewood sitter... my heart breaks again... he was badly injured and we'd used all of our subs, what more can i say? i was sat behind that goal, i had to watch those penalties up close and personal and yes, i did shed a tear. the 7 hour drive home was excrusciatin, my then girlfriend's family were all liverpool supporters

had a lovely barbeque out the back of a mini bus in cardiff before the game though

[Steve Gardner]

Sorry mate, didn't mean to open old wounds!

<offers beer and a shoulder to... er, lean manfully on>

[adam]

i will take the beer and down it, and i will lean on your shoulder as my knee is absolutely killin me today. damn you work related accident

[Steve Gardner]

May 9, 2008 16:14:53 GMT @adam said:

damn you work related accident

Sounds like there's a story to be told here...

[adam]

May 10, 2008 16:29:50 GMT Steve Gardner said:

May 9, 2008 16:14:53 GMT @adam said:

damn you work related accident

Sounds like there's a story to be told here...

and what a story it is

basically i had an accident at work and completely wrecked my right knee. was in a wheelchair for a month (should have been longer), on crutches for a further 3 months (again, should have been longer, should still be on them now) and i have only just in the last week managed to get out of a chair without holding onto anythin to help me up. i cant stand for longer than 10 minutes at a time and i'll never run again

[Steve Gardner]

Shit, that's truly awful mate. I wish you all the very best for speedy recovery.

Was the accident a result of sloppiness on your employers part or was it just one of those things?

[adam]

totally my fault. i drive a school bus for kids with learnin disabilities and back in september i was playin with one of the kids i had at the time who was 4 years old. i picked him up and my knee locked, then i moved and BOOM knee cap went to the back of my knee, every tendon and ligament i pocess ripped in half and the muscles around the knee tore. obviously i fell and landed flat on my back, but did not drop the kid i was holdin. then i had my leg in a full leg cast, which, with legs as long as mine (i'm 6'4", thats a lot of leg) used a lot of plaster, and i lost all the muscle mass i had in my whole leg